ELECTION UPDATE: Final Polls in Catholic Battleground States
Justin Haggerty | The Daily Knight
Original Article on the Trump Campaign's focus on Catholic voters: The Catholic Battleground States: How Catholics will reelect President Trump in 2020
Poll Updates by Battleground, 11/3/20
The current RealClearPolitics average in battleground states shows Vice President Biden polling 2.3% ahead, shrinking from 3.8% on Oct. 24th, of President Trump, which virtually tied with Hillary Clinton in 2016. As illustrated by the historical map, the balance has gone back and forth between the two camps, but have relatively kept pace with the difference in 2016, when the Trump Campaign outperformed the polls on average by 6%. When applying this data to the current polls in battleground states, it is conceivable that President Trump would have a similar outcome to election night 2016 if not better.
Now, let's analyze the data coming out of each of the Catholic battleground states.
The Catholic Battleground States - State by State Analysis
Florida According to the recent RealClearPolitics average in Florida, Vice President Joe Biden currently holds a 0.9% lead, shrinking from 1.5% since Oct. 24th, over President Donald Trump. The performance is well within the 6% differential from 2016 and the current 3% average of oversampling democrat registered voters and the 3.5% margin of error.
At this time in 2016, then candidate Trump enjoyed an average of 0.2%% over Hillary Clinton in Florida. President Trump is performing slightly worse with Vice President Biden in 2020, but has significantly narrowed the gap with the Hispanic vote. According to recent polls from the Sunshine State, President Trump only trails Vice President Biden by 7% among likely Hispanic voters, a major erosion of support from 2016 and 2012.
Additionally, the GOP greatly outperformed the Democrat Party in the battle to register new voters in the state of Florida. Out of the 1.6 million newly registered voters in Florida, Republicans added 193,000 more voters than Democrats, according to Pew Research. NBC News noted "in heavily blue Miami-Dade County, where Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 29 points in 2016, Republicans added a net 22,986 additional voter registrations between March and the end of August, compared to 11,142 for Democrats." In a state that experienced 112,911 more votes for President Trump than Hillary Clinton in 2016, these newly added republican voters could make a major difference, especially when a newly registered voter is 95% likely to vote in an upcoming election. The Daily Knight prediction: Victory President Trump +3.5% Arizona According to the recent RealClearPolitics average in Arizona, Vice President Joe Biden currently holds a 0.9% lead, shrinking from 2.4% on Oct. 24th, over President Donald Trump. Like Florida, the performance remains within the 6% differential from 2016 and the current 3% average of oversampling democrat registered voters and the 3.5% margin of error.
In 2016, the Trump Campaign held a 4% lead over Hillary Clinton in Arizona. In 2016, President Trump earned 31% of the Hispanic vote in Arizona and currently polls at 25% against Vice President Biden in 2020. There appears to be a 5% drop compared to 2016's performance, but still favorable after applying the 6% differential. Arizona proves that the Trump Campaign hasn't improved in Arizona like it has with the Hispanic vote in Florida. The Mexican community may be accepting the Trump Administration differently than the Cuban immigrant community.
In Arizona, Republicans haven't done as well of a job in registering new voters, compared to their efforts in Florida. This could tighten the race a bit. Since August, Republicans added 30,000 more voters than Democrats, despite Democrats' successes in increasing voter rolls by registering the state's increasing number of young Latino voters. The margin of victory for President Trump in 2016 was 91,234 votes. The Daily Knight Prediction: Victory President Trump +1.5% Ohio According to the recent RealClearPolitics average in Ohio, President Trump currently holds a 1.4% lead, increasing from 0.6% on Oct. 24th, over Vice President Biden. Like the beforementioned battleground states, the performance remains above the 6% differential from 2016 and the current 3% average of oversampling democrat registered voters and the 3.5% margin of error.
At this time in 2016, then candidate Trump enjoyed a 3.5% lead on Hillary Clinton, eventually winning on election night by 8.1%.
Figures released by Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose showed 8,080,050 Ohioans were registered in the state, a record only bested in 2008 when President Barrack Obama defeated John McCain. Unlike the improvements in Florida and Arizona, Republicans experienced a 120,000 decrease in registered voters compared to a quarter of a million increase by Democrats. The Republican Party remains the largest in the state, at 1.9 million voters, a contrast with 4.5 million voters who are unaffiliated. These independent voters are where the race will be decided. President Trump's margin of victory was 446,841 over Hillary Clinton in 2016, and it doesn't appear that the Democrats have made up enough ground to contest the state in 2020.
The Daily Knight Prediction: Victory President Trump +5.7%
Pennsylvania According to the recent RealClearPolitics average in Pennslyvania, Vice President Biden currently holds a 1.2% lead, shrinking from 5.1% since Oct. 24th, lead over President Trump. Like the beforementioned battleground states, the performance remains within the 6% differential from 2016 and the current 3% average of oversampling democrat registered voters and the 3.5% margin of error.
In 2016, Hillary Clinton enjoyed an average of 1.9% over the Trump Campaign. President Trump went on to win Pennsylvania by 0.7% and 44,292 votes.
The Morning Call reported that "a year ago the Democrats held about 9.5% registration lead with more than 4 million registrants compared to 3.2 million Republicans...[and], as of October 19 [the lead] is down to 7.8%, with over 4.2 million Democrats and about 3.5 million Republicans among the state’s 9 million registered voters." A more detailed look by NBC News at the numbers would show, "Republicans added a net 135,619 voters between this June's primary and the final week of September, while Democrats added 57,985 and other voters increased 49,995." For a state that came down to 0.7% and 44,292 votes, that 1.7% improvement by Republicans will increase President Trump's performance from 2016. In fact, since 2019 all but 6 of Pennsylvania's counties, including Philadelphia, saw more republican voter registrations than democrats.
The Daily Knight Prediction: Victory President Trump +2.4% Michigan According to the recent RealClearPolitics average in Michigan, Vice President Biden currently holds a 4.2% lead, shrinking from 7.8% on Oct. 24%, over President Trump. Like the other battleground states, the performance remains within the 6% differential from 2016 and the current 3% average of oversampling democrat registered voters and the 3.5% margin of error.
At this time in 2016, Hillary Clinton enjoyed a lead of 3.4% over then candidate Donald Trump, and lost the state by a jaw-dropping 0.3% and 10,704 votes. As you can see, Michigan was one of the states where the results were off more than the 6% differential. Oversampling democrat registered voters, undervaluing voter excitement for Trump, and lower voter turnout for Clinton compared to President Barrack Obama in 2008 and 2012 all factored into the historic upset.
Although new voter registrations have been down in Michigan, with 107,472 so far this year compared with 151,816 in the first six months of that 2016, the Detroit Free Press showed that there was an uptick of 35,278 new registrations in June, a significant gain on the 23,519 recorded in June 2016. The Trump Campaign sees this as a possible reaction to Michigan Democrats' handling of the COVID-19 lockdown, anti-police violence, and urban riots. Additionally, NBC News stated that "the Trump campaign is well aware of the opportunity it has to expand its core demographic base through registration and mobilization: in 2016, there were 1.6 million eligible whites without college degrees who didn't vote in Michigan, according to estimates compiled by the Cook Political Report." That demographic most certainly represents the working class, who are concerned about the economy and job creation, both areas where President Trump outperforms Vice President Biden. The Daily Knight Prediction: Victory President Trump +1.7% Wisconsin According to the recent RealClearPolitics average in Wisconsin, Vice President Biden currently holds a 6.7% lead, increasing from 4.6% on Oct. 24th, over President Trump. Similar to Michigan in 2016, the performance remains just outside the 6% differential from 2016 and the current 3% average of oversampling democrat registered voters and the 3.5% margin of error.
In 2016, President Trump was down an average of 6.5% to the Clinton Campaign, which is virtually tied with today. On election night, President Trump won the state by 0.7% and 22,748 votes.
Like Michigan and Pennsylvania, NBC News posted that President Trump has an opportunity to earn the votes of the "872,000 eligible whites without college degrees who didn't vote in Wisconsin in 2016, according to estimates compiled by the Cook Political Report." As stated before, this demographic most certainly represents the working class, who have supported the Trump Administration's economic and job creation policies over the past three years. Furthermore, the Wall Street Journal in Madison reported that "in the 60 counties [President] Trump won in 2016, the total number of registered voters declined by 2.35%, or 35,395 voters, between July 2016 and July 2020...but in the 12 counties Clinton won, the number declined by a larger 4.51% during the same period, a decline of 56,590 voters, even though there are almost a million fewer registered voters in those counties." Madison continued, "the number of registered voters in July 2020 in the counties that [President] Trump won stood at 2,181,278 voters, down from 2,216,673 in July 2016....[and], in the Clinton counties, the total stood at 1,225,674 registered voters in July of 2020, a drop from 1,282,264 voters in July of 2016. Lastly, in the two "counties that drive big Democratic margins, such as Dane and Milwaukee, registration rates are still down from 2016...Milwaukee County saw a net registered voter decrease of 38,459 between July 2016 and this July, a 5.33% decrease...[and], Dane County saw a smaller decrease of 4,192 voters over the same time frame, representing a 4.28% decrease." For a state that President Trump won by a small 22,748 votes, the voter shrinkage in Democratic counties will play a major factor in making Wisconsin remain red in 2020. The Daily Knight Projection: Victory President Trump +2.5% Minnesota According to the recent RealClearPolitics average in Minnesota, Vice President Biden currently holds a 4.3% lead, shrinking from 6% on Oct. 24th, over President Trump. More similar to Michigan this year, the performance remains within the 6% differential from 2016 and the current 3% average of oversampling democrat registered voters and the 3.5% margin of error.
In late October 2016, Hillary Clinton led the Trump Campaign by 9%, and only won the state by 1.5% and 44,765 votes. Minnesota hasn't voted for a Republican candidate for president since 1972 with President Richard Nixon, and 2020 presents itself as a great opportunity.
The Minnesota Reformer, a left leaning platform, reported that "since the beginning of November 2016, Minnesota has seen an increase of 191,403 registered voters...more than 60% of that growth — 120,466 voters — has been within the seven-county metro, which is the stronghold of the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party." The report further noted that "the current statewide share of registered voters as of September 2020 in the seven-county metro is about 56.5%....up from 56.1% in 2016 and 54.1% in 2000." While we don't deny Democrat support the metro area, the party affiliations for these registrations are unclear and residents have been displeased with the Democrat politicians' handling of the anti-police violence and riots in Minneapolis.
Additionally, the Minnesota Reformer illustrated how 75 counties, many of which were won by President Trump in 2016, have seen registration growth since the last general election.
Democrats would like to counter this Republican growth with newly registered voters by touting the population growth within the seven-county metro area. On the contrary, the Minnesota Reformer admitted that "registration increases and decreases by county have largely followed population growth," and 45 of the states that President Trump won in 2016 have continued to increase in population. The continued growth in the Minnesota suburbs may offset the celebrated gains in Minneapolis by socialist Democrats.
The Daily Knight Prediction: Victory President Trump +1.5% In Conclusion President Trump will win a major victory on November 3rd, maintaining all electoral votes won in 2016 plus Minnesota to equal 314. As seen above, the Biden Campaign's numbers have shrunk in all but one state since October 24th. The Catholic vote in the battleground states will be a major factor in reelecting the President to another four years. Related Article: PREDICTION: 314 Electoral Votes for President Trump - analysis by Jeff Cassman As President Trump has exemplified a unique ability to understand the forgotten men and women of middle-America, he and his campaign have illustrated the same understanding of Catholics across the United States, who have watched the United States slip further and further away from God and traditional Christian values, and that has gravitated toward socialism and marxism. Yes, improving manufacturing in the "rust belt," expanding economic opportunities for immigrants and minorities, lowing healthcare costs, reducing taxes and regulations for workers and businesses, growing American energy independence, making American trade stronger and more competitive against China, restoring law and order in urban and suburban communities, ending foreign wars and international reliance on an American military "police force," holding partners accountable in trade agreements, nominating good constitutional judges to federal courts, and fighting COVID-19 are all important issues for Catholic voters. But, the most important issue that faithful Catholics are united around is ensuring that God and Christ the King reign in America. President Donald Trump may not be a Catholic, but he stands as our best chance to protect the United States and to make her great again. We pray for his reelection as President of the United States, his conversion, the conversion of our souls and of all sinners, for the temporal and spiritual protection of our country, and that America will always remain under God. In Christ Crucified and the Most Victorious Heart of Jesus.